A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
